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The Crisis in Ceuta. Part II: Geopolitical Causes

Between 30 and 31 July 2026, the autonomous city of Ceuta was the scene of one of the most serious humanitarian crises in the recent history of the Spanish state. This was how the article «The Crisis in Ceuta. Part I: The Humanitarian Crisis», published at the beginning of this month, began. We now analyse the possible geopolitical causes of the event through the alliances and interests of the actors involved, starting with the context that has allowed this situation of serious violations of the human rights of migrants to occur.

Although “disguised” on paper as a democratic system, a look at the Constitution and the actual functioning of the Moroccan government shows that it is in reality an authoritarian regime that does not hesitate to harshly repress its population in the face of any threat to the powers that be.

Ensuring its permanence in power requires consolidating itself both internally and externally. For this reason, the Moroccan regime has played its cards on the international stage by taking advantage of the natural resources within its reach (through the occupation of Western Sahara) and its geostrategic position in the Strait of Gibraltar.

One of the Moroccan government’s main interests is international recognition of its “sovereignty” over the territory it has illegally occupied since 1975: Western Sahara. Since then, this regime has devoted itself to expanding its occupation, exploiting the territory’s natural resources and repressing its population, in a constant violation of International Human Rights Law.

A fundamental factor in the prolongation of this occupation has been Western complicity. On the one hand, the Moroccan regime received support for the occupation from France and the United States from the very beginning. This process began during the Cold War, and one of the motivations behind this support was the fear of a socialist-oriented government in the territory. Thus, control over Western Sahara’s natural resources was secured by a government that would not pose any threat to the interests of Western companies. Furthermore, this control has served the Moroccan regime to consolidate its illegal occupation. Particularly relevant in this process has been the complicity of the Spanish state, following its abandonment of its responsibilities as the colonial power, which was supposed to guarantee, among other things, the holding of a self-determination referendum.

As already explained in the previous article on Western Sahara, Mohamed VI, King of Morocco, has spent decades seeking recognition of his sovereignty over the illegally occupied territory through his diplomatic relations. In 2020, he obtained the first official recognition from the United States, and in 2022 the official support of President Pedro Sánchez for his «Moroccan autonomy plan for Western Sahara». This is another step in the betrayal of the Sahrawi people by the governments of the Spanish state.

On the other hand, Morocco enjoys a privileged geostrategic position because it lies next to the Strait of Gibraltar, one of the world’s key hubs for commercial maritime routes. Its port of Tanger Med is, in fact, the largest in Africa and the Mediterranean. The recent escalation of hostilities between the United States and Iran, with control of the Strait of Hormuz as one of its main focal points because of its key role in the flow of oil, only underscores the global significance acquired by control over geographical enclaves of such strategic value.

Source: https://elordenmundial.com/mapas-y-graficos/principales-rutas-comerciales-maritimas-del-mundo/

These are two of the main factors explaining the United States’ support for this regime. But Morocco’s geographical position is of interest to Washington not only because of its commercial relevance: it also plays an important military role as an ally in the region in the face of the growing influence of Russia and China. The military alliance between the United States and Morocco makes the latter another pawn serving US interests on the global chessboard. A future US military base in Morocco would fill a new position in an area where the United States wants to increase its influence.

Source: https://elordenmundial.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/bases-militares-estados-unidos.png

Another partner joins the United States: Israel, the genocidal state and US appendage in Western Asia. The growing military support provided by both countries plays a fundamental role in the occupation and repression in Western Sahara.

At a time when the Spanish state’s diplomatic relations with the United States and Israel are not at their best, the Moroccan regime, supported by these two powers, feels secure enough to take measures that serve as an instrument of pressure against the Spanish state, on the one hand, and against the EU, on the other.

Against the Spanish state, in response to recent measures promoted by the Government which, in the view of the Moroccan regime, run counter to its interests. On the one hand, on 20 July 2026, Pedro Sánchez travelled to Algeria to normalise relations between the two countries and increase gas imports. These relations had been “frozen” since the president announced his support for the “Moroccan autonomy plan for Western Sahara”, since Algeria is an enemy of the Moroccan government and an ally of the Sahrawi people. On the other hand, on 23 July, the Congress Justice Committee approved «the bill granting Spanish nationality to Sahrawis born when the territory was a Spanish colony and to their descendants», another development that angered the Moroccan government.

Against the EU, in response to the rulings of the Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU), which do not allow products originating from the waters and lands of Western Sahara to be labelled as products of Moroccan origin.

Both the Spanish state and the EU have spent decades outsourcing border management through informal agreements, which are difficult to challenge in court, with third countries such as Morocco in order to circumvent international law. They want borders, while completely disavowing responsibility for their management; in other words, ignoring all the measures that should be established to guarantee respect for International Human Rights Law: establishing legal and safe migration routes (safe humanitarian corridors), accessible visas, safe channels for asylum seekers… And it is this fortress Europe, with moats built through outsourcing, that grants power to these countries, which basically receive money from the EU to bypass human rights.

It is this racist and classist attitude in Europe that allows the media and broad sectors of the population to regard unarmed people struggling to cross a border as a “threat”. It is systemic racism, here and in Europe, and the advance of the far right, which takes advantage of circumstances such as those in Ceuta to advance its positions, that allows this narrative of “invasion” or “territorial threat” to spread and borders to be used to generate a crisis. The Spanish government’s response was another part of this reaction, deploying thousands of soldiers tasked with repressing and illegally returning migrants instead of deploying the humanitarian aid required in that situation and effectively addressing asylum applications.

It is clear that this minority of people who concentrate economic, political and media power has an interest in fuelling fear of vulnerable people, since on the path towards a fair global system, the redistribution of power and wealth is a direct threat to their position. In order to remain where they are, it is useful to divert attention from the real causes of the deterioration of people’s living conditions. As Oxfam Intermón denounces in its report «Against the Rule of the Rich. Defending Democracy against Billionaire Power», “this extreme concentration of wealth not only entails enormous economic power, but also growing political power that allows these elites to shape the rules governing our economy and society to their own benefit and to the detriment of the rights and freedoms of citizens as a whole”.

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